BEA's March 1, 2017 income report changed the account of 2016 as well as adding January figures. Annual personal income growth was now estimated at 3.6 percent, against 3.5 percent in the January 30 release. Disposable personal income growth moved from 3.8 percent to 3.9 percent. Both comparisons concern nominal income, before adjustment for inflation. [BEA 17-08][BEA 17-04]
The annual figures compare the 2016 annual level with the 2015 annual level. They are not January's monthly growth rates and not growth from December to December. Disposable personal income subtracts personal current taxes from personal income. Keeping those definitions beside the figures prevents an annual revision from being mistaken for a sudden monthly acceleration. [BEA 17-08][BEA 17-04]
Not every annual estimate moved. Nominal personal consumption expenditures grew 3.8 percent in 2016 in both releases. That unchanged spending estimate belongs alongside the revised income figures: it shows why updating a year-end summary requires checking each series, rather than replacing all its numbers on the assumption that they changed together. [BEA 17-08][BEA 17-04]
The March report said estimates for July through December had been updated and identified newly incorporated third-quarter wage tabulations. The two documents are successive releases from the same agency, not independent confirmations. For an annual comparison prepared as of March 1, our reading is to label the newer income estimates explicitly and preserve the earlier values as revision history. That leaves a reader able to distinguish a changed estimate from a changed reporting period. [BEA 17-08][BEA 17-04]
Source documents
- Personal Income and Outlays, January 2017 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)https://www.bea.gov/news/2017/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2017
- Personal Income and Outlays, December 2016 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)https://www.bea.gov/news/2017/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2016