On November 15, 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an October increase of 0.2 percent in final-demand producer prices excluding foods, energy and trade services, seasonally adjusted. Its consumer release, issued November 10, reported a 0.3 percent increase excluding food and energy. The exclusions were different, not merely the resulting numbers. [ppi2022][cpi2022]
The producer measure removed trade services as well as food and energy. BLS explains that its trade indexes track changes in the margins received by wholesalers and retailers. The consumer measure named in the release removed food and energy; it did not make an equivalent exclusion labeled trade services. Calling both simply “core” obscures this distinction. [ppi2022][cpi2022]
Their annual comparisons also used separate baskets. Through October, the producer measure excluding foods, energy and trade services increased 5.4 percent, while the consumer measure excluding food and energy increased 6.3 percent. Both annual figures were unadjusted. They describe price changes for their respective measures, not two estimates of an identical set of transactions. [ppi2022][cpi2022]
For a clean comparison, name the index, its exclusions and its time period before drawing a conclusion. Our interpretation is methodological: these readings cannot be substituted for one another. They do not establish a forecast for either series. All figures here retain the November 2022 release vintage, with no later data used to resolve what remained uncertain then. [ppi2022][cpi2022]
Source documents
- Consumer Price Index, October 2022https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11102022.htm
- Producer Price Indexes, October 2022https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_11152022.htm