The Bureau of Economic Analysis raised its estimate of fourth-quarter 2016 real GDP growth from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent in its March 30, 2017 release. That second-to-third estimate revision concerned growth from the preceding quarter, expressed at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. February 28 was the date of the earlier estimate. [bea-third][bea-second]

The revision also reached the comparison spanning the year. Growth from fourth-quarter 2015 to fourth-quarter 2016 moved from 1.9 percent in the second estimate to 2.0 percent in the third. Yet growth between the 2015 and 2016 annual levels remained 1.6 percent in both releases. The unchanged annual-level rate therefore coexisted with revisions to both the final quarter and the four-quarter interval. [bea-third][bea-second]

BEA attributed the higher quarterly growth estimate mainly to upward revisions in consumer spending and private inventory investment. Lower estimates of nonresidential fixed investment and exports partly offset those changes. Imports, subtracted in calculating GDP, were revised upward. This is the agency’s explanation of the revision, not a numerical allocation of it among components. [bea-third]

This March 30 retrospective uses current-retrieved BEA representations marked superseded and modified November 1, 2019 (11/1/19). They are not authenticated 2017 bytes; exact wording and availability at the historical cutoff remain unconfirmed. The two releases share one BEA origin and establish revision history, not independent corroboration. [bea-third][bea-second]

Source documents

  1. Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2016 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 4th quarter and annual 2016https://www.bea.gov/news/2017/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-annual-2016-third-estimate-corporate-profits-4th
  2. Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2016 (second estimate)https://www.bea.gov/news/2017/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-annual-2016-second-estimate