January’s $48.5 billion U.S. trade deficit combined a goods shortfall with a services surplus. The Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on March 7, 2017 that the goods deficit reached $69.7 billion while the services surplus stood at $21.2 billion. A surplus in one component therefore offset part of the deficit in the other. [BEA 17-09]

The overall deficit widened $4.2 billion from revised December. Exports increased $1.1 billion to $192.1 billion, but imports increased $5.3 billion to $240.6 billion. These are seasonally adjusted nominal dollar values on a balance-of-payments basis. A larger deficit did not mean that total export value fell, nor does a dollar increase count additional physical items crossing the border. [BEA 17-09]

The February 7 release adds a different comparison: it reported that goods exports fell $50.5 billion during all of 2016 relative to 2015, while services exports fell $1.3 billion. That annual global baseline is not January’s monthly movement or a forecast for 2017. It makes clear that goods and services had different-sized changes even when their annual export directions matched. [BEA 17-06]

Both releases belong to the same federal statistical program. They provide different periods and vintages, not independent confirmation of an economic cause. Our reading rule is to keep three labels attached to each figure: the component, the observation period and the release date. For January, that preserves the central arithmetic: growing exports coexisted with a widening deficit because imports grew more. [BEA 17-06][BEA 17-09]

Source documents

  1. U.S. International Trade In Goods And Services, January 2017https://www.bea.gov/news/2017/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-january-2017
  2. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December 2016https://www.bea.gov/news/2017/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-2016