EIA's February 22, 2017 outlook contained two forecasts that should not be combined into one milestone. Its Annual Energy Outlook Reference case projected that the United States would become a net natural-gas exporter on an annual-average basis by 2018. Separately, five LNG plants were expected to provide 9.2 billion cubic feet per day of operational export capacity by 2021. [30052][25232]
Capacity describes what facilities could handle; actual flow describes gas moving through them. Gross exports count outward movements, while net trade also accounts for imports. Thus projected export capacity cannot be read as an observed trade surplus. The 2018 statement also concerns an annual average, not proof that every month or every bilateral trading relationship would show net exports. [30052][25232]
An earlier EIA account, published March 4, 2016, explains why the physical infrastructure matters. Cooling natural gas to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit reduces its volume to one six-hundredth of its gaseous volume, enabling vessel transport. The account separately discussed construction permissions and export authorizations. Neither an authorized project nor its permitted capacity is identical to completed, operating equipment. [30052][25232]
The February outlook expected LNG exports to exceed pipeline exports by 2020 as projects were completed. That is a comparison between export modes, not another name for net trade. Reading the two EIA publications together gives a useful sequence: authorization, construction, operational capacity, actual shipments, then the balance against imports. The sources explain different parts of that sequence; they do not establish that the projected future steps had already happened. [30052][25232]
Source documents
- Liquefied natural gas exports expected to drive growth in U.S. natural gas tradehttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30052
- Growth in domestic natural gas production leads to development of LNG export terminalshttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25232